TLDR:
Ethereum Exchange Supply Ratio has dropped to low levels, but price has not formed a matching bottom yet.
Historical patterns show that divergences between the ratio and price typically resolve through a downward price move.
ETH has broken below its 1-Day Bull Market Support Band, a level that has acted as a strong reversal zone recently.
Analysts are watching the $2,150 support zone closely as a potential area to add spot positions before any recovery.
A new dip could be coming for Ethereum as on-chain data and technical signals begin to align bearishly. The Exchange Supply Ratio has dropped sharply to historically low levels, yet ETH price has not followed with a corresponding bottom.
This divergence has raised concern among analysts tracking the asset. Historically, such gaps between the metric and price tend to close through a downward correction rather than a rally in the ratio.
A New Dip Could Be Coming as On-Chain Data Diverges From Price
A new dip could be coming for Ethereum based on what the Exchange Supply Ratio is currently showing. This metric tracks how much ETH is held on trading platforms at any given time.
When the ratio drops sharply, it has historically signaled reduced selling pressure and the formation of a price bottom.
The problem now is that the ratio has fallen, but the price has not formed a matching bottom. Cryptoquant analyst PelinayPA flagged this divergence, noting that the market may not have fully priced in the signal yet. That gap between metric and price is what makes the current setup particularly worth watching.
Such divergences do not tend to last long before one side gives way. Based on historical patterns, it is typically the price that moves down to close the gap rather than the ratio recovering upward. That pattern alone puts downside risk firmly on the table.
One reason the price may still be holding is activity in the derivatives market. Leveraged positions can artificially sustain prices for a period, but that kind of support tends to be temporary. Once it unwinds, the price often moves quickly to reflect underlying conditions.
Technical Breakdown Adds Further Weight to Downside Case
Beyond the on-chain divergence, Ethereum’s chart structure is also showing signs of strain. ETH has broken below the 1-Day Bull Market Support Band, a level that has repeatedly acted as a strong reversal zone over the past several months. That break alone is worth monitoring closely.
Analyst CrypticTrades_ weighed in on the price action, acknowledging that while this could still be a short-term deviation, a confirmed breakdown would shift attention toward lower levels. The next key area sits around $2,150, a prior resistance range on higher timeframes that could now act as support.
That zone is where some analysts are already planning to add to their spot positions. A clean hold there could lay the groundwork for a more durable move to the upside further ahead. However, that recovery thesis only holds as long as price does not lose that level entirely.
For now, both signals are pointing in the same direction. Until ETH reclaims its Bull Market Support Band and the on-chain divergence resolves, the possibility of a new dip remains the most technically grounded scenario on the table.
