Over the last few weeks, the Bitcoin price has ping-ponged between $60,000 and $74,000, suggesting that the direction that the price breaks out of in this range could be determinant of what direction the entire market takes next. After dropping more than 45% already, all attention has now shifted to when the pioneer cryptocurrency will make a new bottom. So far, bulls have held up surprisingly well, but there is still a ‘line in the sand’ that the price must not cross.
Bitcoin Macro Structure Is Still Bullish
Presently, the Bitcoin price is still holding well above the 200-Week Moving Average, which is very bullish for the price, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel. The reason for this dates back to the past market cycles, where the 200-Week Moving Average has been the major level to hold or beat.
Digging into the past cycles, Crypto Patel explained that the Bitcoin price had been able to stay above the 200-Week Moving Average back in 2015. The result of this was a major rally that saw the Bitcoin price rally toward $20,000 in the bull market that followed.
Then again, in 2019, the same 200-Week Moving Average held firm, and the resulting bull market led to the 2021 peak of $69,000. Even the third time in 2023, despite the price preciously crashing below $20,000, Bitcoin had managed to hold above the 200-Week Moving Average, and bulls were rewarded as the price would reach $126,000 in 2025.
Given this trend, it becomes obvious that the Bitcoin price being above the 200-Week MA is bullish, and likewise, a crash below it would be bearish. This is why it is important for the bulls to maintain a hold on this level.
BTC Price Must Not Fall Below $59,000
Going by the analyst’s post, the current 200-Week Moving Average for Bitcoin lies at $59,000. This immediately makes it the level to defend for the bulls. As Crypto Patel explains, as long as the Bitcoin price stays above this level, then ‘every dip is a gift.’ This means it could be an opportunity to buy.
If historical trends are to be respected, holding the 200W MA would mean that the Bitcoin price would see new all-time highs sometime in 2028. “The Macro Structure Is Still Bullish. Don’t Let Short-Term Fear Shake You Out,” the analyst warns.
Alternatively, a break below this 200-Week Moving Average could be disastrous for Bitcoin, because it would mean that the cryptocurrency has now officially entered bear market territory. It could also bring the harbinger of more decline, sending the cryptocurrency lower before establishing a bottom.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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