What This Rare Market Shift Means for BTC

Gold has now fallen more than 20% from its ATH near $5,600, and its most recent drop became its worst weekly performance since 2011.

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has dropped to 0.9, its lowest level in 3 years.

This is according to analyst Wise Crypto, who noted that similar readings in the past have appeared near major BTC lows, raising the possibility that the asset may be entering a recovery phase.

Correlation Breakdown

According to Wise Crypto’s data, which they shared on X on March 24, Bitcoin is stabilizing while gold is weakening, with the BTC-to-gold ratio down by around 70% from its previous high. Looking at history, the analyst pointed out that such conditions occurred right when Bitcoin stopped falling and started recovering.

There has also been a lot more accumulation by whales, adding to the argument that larger holders are positioning during the current price range.

Additionally, Wise Crypto pointed to recent geopolitical developments, which have added context to BTC’s performance relative to traditional assets.

“Add in macro + geopolitical resilience, and the case builds,” they wrote. “Bitcoin may have already bottomed.”

As we previously reported, the cryptocurrency gained 7% after the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict on February 28, while gold fell 2% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped slightly.

That relative strength came even with sharp intraday swings tied to breaking headlines. And yesterday was another example of just how these headlines affect BTC. At first, the flagship cryptocurrency went up to about $71,500 after U.S. President Donald Trump made remarks about a pause in hostilities between his country and Iran. However, Iran quickly denied the claims, sending BTC back toward $70,000 and contributing to more than $800 million in liquidations.

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Meanwhile, gold sank deeper into bear market territory, shedding almost 10% last week, when it registered its weakest performance since September 2011. The poor showing has now seen it drop more than 20% from its all-time high near $5,600 recorded in January.

As Wise Crypto noted,

“If history rhymes, BTC could be gearing up to outperform gold next.”

Easing Short-Term Selling Pressure

On its part, Bitcoin was trading at $71,000 at the time of writing, having gained more than 3% in the last 24 hours. Nonetheless, it is down 5% over 7 days, although the close to 4% uptick across the past month shows the asset may be in consolidation instead of a clear downward trend.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha says that short-term selling pressure on Binance has dropped off, with the 7-day standard deviation of short-term holder realized profit and loss dropping to 255, a level last seen before BTC caught rebounds of 10% to 14%. For example, there was a similar reading in late February, which was followed by Bitcoin going from around $66,000 to over $75,000.

This drop in volatility suggests that there has been a slowdown in rapid selling from short-term traders, and although losses may still outweigh profits in current flows, it appears that the overall pressure is becoming less erratic, which in the past matched up with more stable price conditions.