Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have upgraded their outlook for a swathe of single-asset spot-crypto exchange-traded funds, taking the headline odds for XRP, Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) to 95 percent for approval by the end of 2025. Posting the revised forecast on X late on 30 June, Seyffart wrote: “Here are mine and Eric Balchunas’ most recent odds on spot crypto ETF approvals by the end of 2025. We expect a wave of new ETFs in this second half of 2025.”
Bloomberg Raises XRP, Solana, Litecoin ETF Odds To 95%
The analysts’ latest matrix assigns identical 95 percent odds to four categories: XRP, SOL, LTC and a separate “basket/index” product that would convert Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex and Franklin vehicles holding multiple tokens into spot ETFs. Each of those filings has already had its initial Rule 19b-4 submission acknowledged by the Securities and Exchange Commission, and each faces a final SEC decision in early July (for the basket product) or in mid-October 2025 (for the three single-asset funds).
Directly behind the front-runners sit Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera (HBAR) and Avalanche, all marked at 90 percent. Canary-filed Sui is judged a coin-flip at 60 percent, while Tron and the micro-cap token Pengu each remain at 50 percent, reflecting open questions around commodity status and the absence of CFTC-regulated futures.
The new 95 percent figure is the third upward revision in as many months. On 20 June Balchunas and Seyffart lifted most altcoin ETFs to “90% or higher”, citing “remarkably positive” engagement from SEC staff. Back in late April, the same analysts still pegged SOL at 70 percent and XRP at just 65 percent, a level they themselves called “an improved outlook” compared with February’s sub-60 percent assessments. In percentage-point terms, XRP and LTC have therefore gained roughly thirty points since the start of the year, while SOL is up 25.
Three dynamics underpin the latest bump: First, there’s the impending decision on Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC). The SEC must decide by 2 July whether to allow NYSE Arca to list shares of GDLC, a $730 million vehicle that holds Bitcoin, Ether and a combined 8 percent slice of XRP, SOL and Cardano.
Seyffart told Blockworks that the agency could “let the product through” precisely because the non-BTC/ETH allocation is modest; “if they’re not approved on this first date, it’ll only be because the SEC isn’t ready with a full framework,” he said blockworks.co. ETF Store president Nate Geraci went further, writing via X that approval is “highly likely” and would create a “low-risk sandbox” for the SEC to gather surveillance data before green-lighting standalone altcoin funds.
In every case where Seyffart assigns 90 percent or more, the underlying token already trades on a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated venue and has been implicitly treated as a commodity in recent SEC correspondence. The agency’s acknowledgement of the relevant 19b-4 filings, Seyffart argues, “suggests that the underlying altcoins are likely viewed as commodities”
The third positive sign is the active, iterative dialogue with issuers. Multiple sponsors — including Canary, VanEck, 21Shares and Fidelity — have filed amended S-1s at the SEC’s request over the past month. Seyffart and Balchunas see that level of back-and-forth as the same pattern that preceded spot-Bitcoin approval in January 2024 and spot-Ether approval seven months later.
If GDLC wins the nod this week, attention will swing quickly to the single-asset queue. The SEC’s final deadline for Solana is 10 October 2025; XRP and Dogecoin come up on 17 October; Litecoin on 2 October; Cardano on 23 October; Polkadot on 8 November; Hedera on 11 November; and Avalanche on 12 December. Sui’s file runs to 21 December, while the first substantive decision on Tron is not due until 23 January 2026, and Pengu stretches to 12 March 2026.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.21.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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