Key takeaways:
Bitcoin (BTC) retail traders are known for entering the market during periods of euphoria, typically after strong monthly gains or a new all-time high. This time is no different, with Bitcoin approaching $104,000 on May 14 while general public interest and retail activity continue to lag.
Analysts estimate that in 2025, retail investors were the largest net sellers of BTC, while institutions were the main buyers. But if historical patterns hold, a surge in retail appetite is likely to occur about one week after Bitcoin surpasses the $109,350 mark.
According to River’s estimates, individual investors sold a total of 247,000 BTC throughout 2025, equivalent to $23 billion based on the average price during the period. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy accounted for 77% of the 157,000 BTC acquired by businesses that year.
Retail interest for Bitcoin nears 6-month lows
Current search trends for the term “Bitcoin” match levels last seen in June 2024, when BTC was trading around $66,000 after three months of failing to break above $73,000.
Likewise, the Coinbase app now ranks 15th in the US App Store within the finance category—comparable to its 20th-place ranking in June 2024, based on data from The Block.
If mobile app rankings and Google search trends for “Bitcoin” can serve as proxies for retail interest, demand last peaked on Nov. 15, 2024, when the Coinbase app jumped from the 40th to the 5th position in under two weeks. At the same time, search activity spiked to its highest level in over two years.
The retail excitement coincided with Bitcoin breaking its previous all-time high of $73,757 on Nov. 6, 2024, with excitement peaking nine days later. Although retail traders missed most of the gains from the $67,000 level a month earlier, the bullish trend persisted as Bitcoin surged to $107,000 by mid-December 2024.
Related: Bitcoin bulls aim for new all-time highs by next week as capital inflows soar
Buying Bitcoin near an all-time high is a sub-optimal strategy
A comparable spike in retail demand occurred on March 9, 2024, when the Coinbase app rose to the fourth most downloaded in the US finance category, up from 35th place just two weeks earlier. At the same time, Google search interest for “Bitcoin” hit its highest level in 20 months, roughly six days after Bitcoin surpassed its prior record daily close of $68,000 from November 2021.
The retail interest jump in March 2024 followed a 56% price increase in just 30 days, with BTC climbing from $43,100 to $68,100. In contrast to the November 2024 breakout, the following seven months saw erratic price movements, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain levels above $70,000. Retail traders tend to react to previous all-time highs, but this often means they miss out on most of the upside.
The net outflows from retail investors while Bitcoin trades 5.5% below all-time high reinforce the “Bitcoin” search trends and Coinbase app rankings, supporting the idea that retail demand emerges roughly one week after a previous all-time high is surpassed.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
