Bitcoin is trading steadily above the $85,000 mark, but upward momentum remains limited as the $88,000 to $91,000 liquidity zone acts as a major resistance. This range, which previously supported price action, has now flipped into a critical barrier that bulls have yet to reclaim. Until a decisive breakout occurs, Bitcoin is likely to remain trapped in a narrow range, facing pressure from both technical and macroeconomic headwinds.
Trade war fears and rising global economic tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, contributing to increased volatility across financial markets. These macro uncertainties are playing a key role in shaping short-term price movements, keeping traders cautious despite signs of underlying strength.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a notable shift in supply dynamics. Over the last five months, supply from major Bitcoin holders — often referred to as whales — has declined significantly, with a total reduction of 290,000 BTC. This reduction points to a period of consistent distribution, but recent metrics suggest that the selling may have slowed.
Whale Activity Signals Shift in Market Behavior
Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal level, with bulls attempting to break above the $88,000 mark and spark a renewed rally. After reclaiming support at $85,000, momentum has been building, but a clear breakout remains elusive. The $88K level stands as a key technical barrier, and a move above it could open the door to retesting the critical $90K-$91K liquidity zone. However, caution still dominates the market as broader macroeconomic instability weighs on investor sentiment.
Ongoing trade war fears and unpredictable policy decisions continue to shake global markets, leaving risk assets like Bitcoin exposed to sudden shifts in sentiment. Amid this uncertainty, traders are closely watching on-chain metrics for signs of deeper structural change in the market.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared fresh insights on X, revealing that over the past five months, supply from major players — particularly those with wallet balances exceeding 1,000 BTC — has declined by 290,000 BTC. This drawdown suggested consistent selling over several months. However, Adler notes that average figures have now started to rise again, reflecting a slow but clear shift back toward accumulation. In simpler terms, whales have stopped selling.
This change in behavior among large holders could provide foundational support for a future rally. While the macro backdrop remains uncertain, the shift in whale activity hints at renewed confidence and a potential transition from distribution to accumulation — a critical signal as Bitcoin approaches one of the most important resistance zones of the current cycle.
Bitcoin Holds Key Support But Faces Pressure Below $90K
Bitcoin is currently holding above the 200-day moving average (MA) and 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), both converging near the $85,500 level. This zone has acted as a key support area in recent weeks, and bulls must continue to defend it to prevent a deeper drop into lower demand regions. For now, the level is holding — but technical support alone won’t be enough to shift momentum.
While maintaining the 200-day averages is a positive sign, it becomes meaningless if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $90,000 level. That price zone remains the most critical resistance to watch, serving as a key liquidity area and psychological barrier. Without a decisive breakout above $90K, the current bounce risks losing steam.
If Bitcoin remains stuck below $90K in the coming days, bearish pressure is likely to build, increasing the probability of a drop below $81,000. That would mark a significant breakdown and could trigger more aggressive selling across the market. As BTC trades within a tight and tense range, bulls are running out of time. A move above $90K is crucial to validate the current structure and confirm the beginning of a new leg higher.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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